September 7, 2023 American Foreign Policy Decision-Making Term Paper 4431 words

Abstract: drawing on Senate Committee on Foreign Relations congressional hearing transcripts released by US Government Publishing Office and fixating on the 117th Congress, the present paper attempts to conduct a quantitative chi-square analysis on whether analogical reasoning indeed is employed by decision-makers (here legislators) to make the case and exert an influence on the policy outcome. It bases its analysis on Yuen Foong Khong’s conception of the Analogical Explanation (AE) framework and Donald A. Sylvan’s writing of three styles of reasoning, draws on hearing transcripts published by US Government Publishing Office, conducts both textual analysis and chi-square test, and finally argues that policy makers invoke analogies quite often in their arguments, and compared to explanation-based reasoning and model-based reasoning, analogies or case-based reasoning takes up a greater proportion than previous scholars argue. Therefore, the present paper also argues that future analysis of US foreign policy must take account of the role played by analogical reasoning in the decision-making process.

Introduction: In the wake of the 2022 Russian-Ukraine war, political pundits and scholars in the US are not only examining the present war per se, but they are also closely extracting the “lessons from and implications of the Russian Ukraine war” for, among many others, “a future Taiwan Strait scenario” (Yau 519). The Council on Foreign Relations, in a May 2022 article, suggests the US should send more weapons to Taiwan the same way it boosted military assistance to the Ukrainian government (Abrams para. 9). More recently, the Atlantic Council (2023) proposes that a key lesson the US might find applicable to a Taiwan scenario is the importance of both conventional and non-conventional support to Ukraine in stopping a possible annexation, namely intelligence, economic, as well as military assistance (Culver and Kirchberger para. 18). Such efforts are by no means limited to think tank articles only, and while all reiterating the significance of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they have yet another subtler common feature, that is, using Russian aggression against Ukraine as an analogy to inform decision making regarding US policy towards mainland China and Taiwan. In other words, what lies underneath the “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” mentality is the cognitive pattern called analogical reasoning that scholars argue to be present in numerous US foreign policy decision making practices (Hehir 71; Zhang para. 4).

Policymakers, as scholars in political psychology suggest, draw parallels to historical analogies whenever they encounter a new situation (Sternberg 99). Following this line of reasoning, Hemmer (1999) contends...

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March 3, 2023 America and the Indo-Pacific Term Paper 4618 words

Abstract: While US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific garners the majority of scholarly attention, the role played by Middle powers therein is at best neglected and at worst misunderstood. Building on the institutional balancing framework developed by Kai He and the lateral cooperation notion by Tanguy Struye de Swielande, the paper attempts to rediscover middle powers’ agency by delving into the cases of ASEAN, RCEP, IPEF, and several infrastructure projects. It argues that middle powers have more options than what was normally perceived by the international community: they can be initiators, reaping first-mover advantage and counterbalancing great powers; or utilizers, taking part or staying away as required by their national interests; they can also consider forging lateral cooperation among peer middle powers should the former two do not work out as planned.

Introduction: Since its inception, the term “Indo-Pacific” has been endowed with broad geopolitical implications: the rise of China that is believed to threaten regional balance of power, and the ensuing intensified competition between this emerging power and the incumbent great power the US (Pan 453). Though engagement was what the latter resorted to most of the times, US response to China’s growth shifted when Donald Trump entered the White House, whose trade policies among other things fueled the growing friction and raised the possibility of economic decoupling between the world’s two biggest economies (Friedberg 110-111; Hoo and Teo 64). The same situation extended even under Biden administration, destabilizing the Indo-Pacific to a greater degree (Hoo and Teo 65). While China and the US are apparently the major players therein, other countries including Australia, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, are left in a perilous position where there are incessant anxieties about the future Asian regional order. Located at geopolitical choke points and limited by their national power, these countries rely heavily on economic cooperation with China for prosperity and security agreements with the US to ensure security (Jung et al., 56). With changing political landscapes, however, they now have doubts over Beijing’s intention and Washington’s commitment, yet seeking assurance from one side risks displeasing the other. Therefore, how these middle powers can manage to safeguard both economic and security benefits while at the same time mitigating potential damages alongside the great power competition becomes a question worthy of further investigation...

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July 31, 2022 American Economic History Research Proposal 3340 words

Abstract: The present research intends to broaden our understanding of the reasons behind the extension of suffrage to women, by examining in detail the role the liquor industry played within different states. To the extent that women, be they officially joined in the prohibition movement or not, were believed to oppose liquor consumption, it is hypothesized herein that in states where there was larger liquor industry, the extension of suffrage to women was delayed or blocked, as liquor industry would do what it could to protect its interests. Drawing on primary data collected from the Library of Congress and the US Census Bureau, It first conducts a content analysis to figure out how frequent the liquor industry had got in the way of women’s suffrage, and then empirical tests the role of the liquor industry via regression analysis.

Introduction: “All men are created equal,” yet for centuries women were excluded from equal treatment and from the unalienable rights that the Creator and the Constitution endowed to them. It was only in 1919, after decades of struggle on the part of women and through relentless organized efforts, that the US legislature finally passed the 19th Amendment granting women the right to vote, which was then ratified in 1920 by the states (Moehling and Thomasson 17). Some posit that the extension of suffrage to women was because of the consolidation of higher social and moral values: influenced by the Enlightenment spirits, it would be unfair if a large segment of the population had no representation (Acemoglu and Robinson 1186). Plausible as it may be, moral reason alone is insufficient in explaining the timing of the extension – in the late 19th and early 20th centuries long after Enlightenment spirits gained popularity – and the disparities among different regions – Western states in the US granted suffrage to women earlier than most Eastern states (see Figure 1 below).

Furthermore, to think of women’s winning suffrage as an ultimate victory for gender equality would be idealistic, as a hundred years later, the world still witnesses unequal pay for women, women’s underrepresentation in institutions, and little control women have over their own body (Sanbonmatsu 40; Stamarski and Hing 1). In particular, the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022 once again reminded us of the fragile position that women held in the world and the fact that progress in social and moral values does not necessarily translate into social reform (Totenberg and McCammon chap.3). But history can be revealing

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July 1, 2019 Academic Writing (IR Track) Term Paper 6876 words

Abstract: It has been acknowledged that China went through an attitudinal shift towards the international norm – Responsibility to Protect (R2P), from early condemnation to a more tolerant and open attitude. However, this shift when announced to the public was confronted with two problems: 1) why China as a traditional defender of non-intervention would support a norm that has something to do with humanitarian intervention; 2) why China on the one hand officially demonstrates its supportive attitude towards this norm, yet on the other hand continues to limit its applicability. Based on this realization, this paper investigates China’s stance on the R2P through two cases: the Libya crisis and the Syria crisis. After a detailed discourse analysis and historical analysis, it argues that the emerging term, Responsible Protection (RP) can well resolve the problems in understanding China’s shift, in that RP helps build up a balance between China’s insistence on non-intervention policy and its current support for the Responsibility to Protect. From a broader perspective, this study endeavors to examine China’s stance on the R2P and its international standing in contemporary international relations.

Introduction: First coined in December 2001 by the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS), the norm “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) in this year reached its 20th anniversary. And early on in 2020, the Global Center for R2P celebrated its 15th anniversary of the adoption of the norm at the 2005 UN World Summit, presenting to the world the development and practices of P2R. The most basic meaning of it was to build up solutions to cope with similar atrocity crimes that Rwanda and Kosovo had endured (Teitt 299). By October 2021, this norm has been applied or brought to discussion in UN security Council for 83 times, specifically on 13 separate cases concerning different countries; however, whether to apply the R2P norm in international humanitarian crisis remains a constant question at issue (GlobalR2P 2021) .

As a veto-wielding permanent member of the UN Security Council, China’s position on the R2P concept has always been a public focus. When the term was still under formation, many Chinese scholars dispatched harsh critiques on it and inclined to believe that R2P could be another rhetorical tool for the West to introduce humanitarian intervention (Zheng 687). This thinking more or less resulted in China’s traditional hard position on sovereignty and its reluctance towards liberal orders. Yet, China’s position on the R2P has continued to evolve. When the concept was further developed into a clearly defined norm, China shifted from its initial condemnation to a more tolerant and open attitude (Teitt; Wang; Luo).

However, there are several problems remaining to be solved when it comes to understanding and accepting this shift. First, ...

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March 13, 2022 History of Sino-US Relations Response Essay 1452 words

February 2022 marks the 50th anniversary of US President Richard Nixon’s momentous visit to China that brought the two mutually isolated countries into a closer relationship and paved the way for normalization and cooperation later on. In a recent webinar held by US-China Education Trust (USCET), members of Nixon’s delegation Nicholas Platt and Chas Freeman, and founding president of USCET Julia Chang Bloch, shed light on this historic event, and all enriched our understanding of it with their personal experiences and insightful opinions. That said, this essay first summarizes the webinar and then gives a tentative commentary on Nixon’s visit from my own perspective.

Notably, there are two rounds of discussion in the webinar: one concerns the trip itself and the negotiation of the ensuing Shanghai Communique; the other deals with the implication of the trip on present-day US-China relations. In the first round, Freeman mainly addresses the reasons for Nixon to embark on such an unprecedented trip. Based on his experience in drafting 47% of the documents delivered directly to Nixon, Freeman believes that geopolitical concerns outweigh the economic and cultural reasons, i.e., to gain more leverage over US relations with the Soviet Union. Moreover, citing the content of talks between both sides over issues they disagreed about, including DPRK, Hanoi, and Pakistan, Freeman shows that geopolitical concerns were never far from these leaders’ minds. Trade relations and cultural exchange, according to him, were only an afterthought.

Platt goes into greater depth on the many occurrences during the trip. He recalls the moment when President Nixon was about to come down the plane and everyone else worrying about whether heads of both countries would shake hands together, which reminds us once again how turbulent the Sino-US relationship back then was. The pleasant handshake that followed between Nixon and Premier Zhou Enlai provided comfort and confidence to people on both sides, allowing them to proceed with further negotiations. Platt introduces that there were three sets of talk: first, Premier Zhou and President Nixon talking about the global situations; second, Secretary William Rogers and Foreign Minister Ji Pengfei talking about trade relations, legal issues, and cultural exchange; third, Henry Kissinger and Qiao Guanhua talking about the structure of the communique. Each day before and after the talks, there were telegenic events involving Nixon visiting places of interest of China in the morning, and gymnasts from both sides competing with each other in the evening.

The second round of discussion centers on the results of Nixon’s trip to China. One immediate result, as Freeman puts it, was that the trip set in motion the establishment of liaison offices in Beijing and in Washington. Freeman believes it important because both sides had succession crisis later on and institutionalizing the relationship helped the achievements of this trip to survive intact. Platt agrees with Freeman on the importance of setting up liaison offices. He adds that liaison offices also provided the infrastructure or gave the permission for people-to-people contacts to begin: Following this, citizens from both countries got intrigued about one another, and many started to develop personal links with people on the other side. Platt contends, however, that it is the “nuts and bolts issues” (trade, travel, culture) that matter at the end of the day, not the triangular diplomacy (geopolitics) as many may assume. Half a century later, the cultural exchange between US and China (Philadelphia orchestra) is still going on, yet application of triangular diplomacy is nowhere to be found.

Bloch addresses the implication of Nixon’s visit from a Chinese American perspective. She remembered back then how the television images of Nixon in China amazed her and her family, and for the first time since they immigrated to the US, they saw China again, which aroused immense longing for them to go back some day. Bloch believes TV allowed Americans to see China as it really was, and turned the politically defined enemies into human beings. The value of Nixon’s visit therefore went beyond geopolitics. On the other hand, she maintains that the trip divided the Chinese-American community, as those who identified more with Taiwan felt they were betrayed by the Nixon administration. But even for this group of people, Bloch argues, the trip did evoke happy memories of them back in China.

Overall, speakers in this webinar agree that Nixon’s visit to China pushed Sino-US relations to proceed in a positive direction, but disagree on which reason. The trip was indeed a bold move to make, given the tense global Cold War situation and lack of previous connection between US and China back then. Fifty years later, Sino-US relations seem to have reached another crossroads. Therefore, one may start to envisage a similar approach taken by today leaders of both governments to break the ice again. To analogize these two scenarios, it is important to first ponder over questions such as what role leadership played therein, what is the status of Shanghai Communique, how the balance between differences and common ground was achieved, whether engagement or high-level dialogue can still be an efficient diplomatic instrument, and whether there are generational changes concerning views towards Sino-US relations. I would like to share some of my own views on Nixon’s visit and Sino-US relations.

First of all, I agree with Platt and Bloch that cultural and people-to-people level of factors take precedence in this day and age over geopolitical and government-to-government ones. For one thing, with easy access to global information provided by the Internet, people no longer depend on the government to have their own perception of the opposite side. In turn, bottom level exchanges exert greater influence on political leaders, since leaders depend on their constituents to win reelections. Public opinion in information age has also become increasingly powerful and unable to neglect. Proposing a similar bold move as Nixon’s visit to China would be a risk that is not worth taking. For another, whatever the circumstances, it is always politicians laying out blueprints and individual citizens, at the end of the day, carrying out the blueprints and turn them into tangible reality. Hence, I believe the key for Sino-US relations to reach a rapprochement lies in the attitudes that two countries’ citizens hold towards each other. However, for the time being xenophobia of both sides poses a potential threat, which can be easily detected through “a new cold war”, “China threat”, “trade war”, “American hegemony” narratives.

Second, I believe engagement and dialogue could be the most valuable lesson we can draw from Nixon’s visit to China. As Bloch puts it, “human connection is the antidotes to war and aggression.” More often than not, conflicts between powers, like those between humans, arise due to a lack of communication. Freeman notes that great powers resorting to military forces instead of peaceful dialogue in dealing with others is to some extent due to their concerns about losing “military credibility”. He contends that there should be a notion of “diplomatic credibility” as well, and powers should pay equal attention to it. Nixon’s visit by all means sets a good example of uplifting America’s diplomatic credibility. As efficient a policy instrument as it may be, we should also note that, whether high-level dialogue will eventually take place or not, relies greatly on the leadership of both sides. To carry out successful and fruitful dialogues, we need strong leaders as well as “masterful technicians”.

Last but not least, Freeman is right in pointing out China shares with Russia the perception of US spreading sphere of influence through NATO, but I have reservations about his assumption that, if Russia succeeds in annexing Ukraine, it will then serve as a model for China to resolve the Taiwan issue. As far as I’m concerned, China (or PRC more precisely) in modern times scarcely resorted to military forces, and the previous Hong Kong and Macao cases are well indicative that resorting domestic disputes through innovative diplomatic means is very probable, not to mention China’s renowned commitment to be a responsible great power.

To conclude, the significance of the unprecedented visit has not diminished half a century later. “Seeking common ground while setting aside differences” is still an applicable principle guiding our diplomatic practices. Past experience is what gives us confidence and courage to confront present and future challenges. But again, in an information age, it is important to identify hard facts from fake news, and develop our own analysis based on logical reasoning; otherwise, we will be easily swayed by media framing.

Reference
USCET. Reflections on the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China. https://youtu.be/AVDL3Q6Ip98

December 30, 2022 American Film: Theory and Practice Term Paper 3185 words

Introduction: “Why the screens?” This was the question John Cho had in mind when Aneesh Chaganty first invited him to play the male lead in his screenlife film Searching (NPR para.8). Cho almost declined out of concern that the concept of a film taking place entirely on computer screens was not feasible and he lacked acting experience in a screen-only production with few on-set co-stars. (NPR para.9; Rindner para.23). But Chaganty insisted, and the film turned out to be a financial and critical success: it earned over $75 million in total against a budget of less than $1 million, and it received the NEXT Audience Award, Alfred P. Sloan Prize at 2018 Sundance Film Festival and worldwide praise for its unique visual presentation and storyline . As a matter of fact, from Megan Is Missing (2011), The Den (2013) Unfriended (2014), and Open Windows (2014), to Searching (2018), “screenlife films” has become a burgeoning genre in the past decade, with pioneer directors and producers trying out new possibilities combining screenlife with existing horror and thriller genres (Siegel para.3; Rindner para.1). Though the favorable reception seems to have resolved Cho’s question, it remains worthwhile to ponder over what screenlife really is and what are the new features screenlife brings to traditional trillers. That said, using Searching as a case in point, the present essay argues that, by incorporating screenlife into the thriller genre, a threefold effect is achieved, namely the realist aesthetics, up-close voyeurism, and the revelation of emotional transitions.

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